When You Don’t Know That You Don’t Know!

Let me begin with a story. In 1995 a man named Arthur Wheeler rubbed lemon juice on his face and robbed two banks in Pittsburgh. Later he was booked and was shocked that the close circuit cameras caught his face as he believed that the lemon juice would make him invisible, like invisible ink. This crazy heist won him the dubious distinction of being the stupidest robber in the world.

What Was Going On?

Social Psychologists David Dunning & Justin Kruger studied this phenomenon and conducted investigations post the Wheeler robbery.In 1999, they published a paper on it, the title was “Unskilled and Unaware of it:How difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments”.

They concluded in the paper that, some people are too stupid to know how stupid they are, while smart people assume most can do what they can.

 In simple words, people misjudge their own abilities.

When they do not know anything about a subject their knowledge is zero as well as their confidence.

When they know a little about a subject, the knowledge is still low but confidence is very high.

When they start to go deep into a subject they appreciate the complexities of issues and start to doubt their abilities.

Then as they gain mastery over the subject their confidence increases and understand their own expertise as well as limitations.

You can read about the paper by clicking this Link.

Let me begin with a story. In 1995 a man named Arthur Wheeler rubbed lemon juice on his face and robbed two banks in Pittsburgh. Later he was booked and was shocked that the close circuit cameras caught his face as he believed that the lemon juice would make him invisible, like invisible ink. This crazy heist won him the dubious distinction of being the stupidest robber in the world.

What Was Going On?

Social Psychologists David Dunning & Justin Kruger studied this phenomenon and conducted investigations post the Wheeler robbery.In 1999, they published a paper on it, the title was “Unskilled and Unaware of it:How difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments”.

They concluded in the paper that, some people are too stupid to know how stupid they are, while smart people assume most can do what they can.

 In simple words, people misjudge their own abilities.

When they do not know anything about a subject their knowledge is zero as well as their confidence.

When they know a little about a subject, the knowledge is still low but confidence is very high.

When they start to go deep into a subject they appreciate the complexities of issues and start to doubt their abilities.

Then as they gain mastery over the subject their confidence increases and understand their own expertise as well as limitations.

You can read about the paper by clicking this Link.

You can see this phenomenon quite clearly in the COVID 19 debates on our televisions. Clearly, there isn’t enough evidence of understanding the virus but we have Presidents and Senators espousing medical advice liberally.

Medical professionals have also been guilty of long lists of do’s and don’ts. The jury is now out on the much-hated beach trips of citizens of Florida & Los Angeles. The science now says that it is fine to be out in the open as long as you have distanced yourself socially. You can read about that view here.

I hear about scientists claiming that COVID 19 spreads via air particles and not via droplet via sneeze. If that is true then, it puts a far more serious spin to social distancing.

Our own Ramdev Baba of Patanjali made an announcement on Primetime TV with a lot of fanfare. He launched a coronavirus cure, Coronil which had to be later retracted. The pill may just improve immunity but to call it a cure was unproven and farfetched.

Another Company Bharat Biotech has made claims to come up with a vaccine by 15 Aug 2020. Experts have dismissed them stating that if due protocols are followed then this is an impossibility.

It is not necessary that the tall claims are in bad faith. They could be explained by the Dunning-Kruger effect.

The graph shows on the left a person with low knowledge with confidence at zero. As he gets a little knowledge his confidence is sky high and the person is on what is called Mount Stupid.

As knowledge increases, he falls into the Valley of despair. That is why depression and diffidence are common in highly educated and brilliant minds.

Gradually the person gains mastery and climbs up to the Slope of enlightenment and sustainability.

The confidence of the stupid comes from misjudging /overestimation of their own ability. The misjudgment of the competent comes from overestimating the ability of others around them.

There are always conspiracy theories going on which negate science and very obvious reality which is staring them in their face. Like there is a shocking theory that there is nothing like coronavirus and it is caused no deaths. You can read it here. There are believers that the world is flat, vaccinations is evil and coronavirus vaccines will contain a microchip.

So there are people who have climbed Mount Stupid and are shouting out their beliefs with an unshakeable conviction.

The Financial markets are uncertain at the best of times. Throw in a pandemic, the uncertainty can multiply manifold. Add to that 24 hours news anchors who have to fill time slots and experts who get this never before a chance at fame the result is shrill, loud, rabid forecasts coming from Mount Stupid.

The quiet, knowledgeable voices get drowned out sitting in the valley of despair. They know that that they don’t know. And can only make educated guesses.

Be cautious when you make decisions about your finances listening to the “experts”, first decide where it is coming from. Stay nimble and change your mind quickly if facts change. It makes sense to listen to everyone and make up your mind whether the predictions are from Mount Stupid or from the slope of enlightenment.